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Will Wales qualify for the 2022 World Cup? The likelihood revealed after Estonia win

Wales realistically need to claim four points from their final two World Cup qualifying matches if they are to finish second in Group E.

Rob Page’s men kept themselves firmly in the mix for runner-up spot as Kieffer Moore’s early goal earned the visitors a 1-0 win over Estonia in Tallinn.

It means they remain level with Czech Republic who have just a game against Belarus to go while Wales take on the Belarusians and Belgium in Cardiff next month.

Given that Wales are currently third, they will, as things stand, qualify for the play-offs through their Nations League performance. This means they would be unseeded in the play-offs and face a definite away semi-final.

But it’s remarkably tight, with exactly half of the 12 teams currently set to make up the play-off picture being on 11 points, so goal difference and goals scored are highly likely to come into play next month.

This is how the play-offs look right now:

Seeded: Portugal, Sweden, Croatia, Switzerland, Scotland & Czech Republic.

Unseeded: Norway, Romania, Albania, Ukraine, Wales & Austria.

Czech Republic would be seeded as things stand, although only by the skin of their teeth. They would pip the Netherlands to the sixth and final seeded slot by one goal, although, as ever, this could change dramatically in the next camp.

We Global Football have worked out that Wales are 99.9% certain to be in the play-offs, and, crucially, they have calculated that the Red Dragons have a 22.9% chance of being involved in next year’s tournament in Qatar.

READ MORE:The results Wales now need in World Cup play-off hunt after 1-0 win over Estonia

“Two cup finals left, and that’s how we’re going to treat it,” said Page after the win in Estonia.

“We want all of our best players available, and every player will be because they’re two big games and they’ll all want to be involved in that. We’ll have the crowd behind us, and we can’t wait.”

Monday night’s match winner Moore is suspended for the contest with Belarus at Cardiff City Stadium after collecting his second yellow card of the qualifying campaign in Estonia.

However, the towering forward is confident that Wales can get a result against Belgium on November 16.

“I firmly believe it’s in our hands. We’ve got two massive games, the Belgium game is obviously going to be tough, but I fancy us to get something out of it. It’s really on us now,” he said.

(Seedings and qualification calculations correct at time of publishing)

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