American voters will be closely watching the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election after polls close Tuesday, with GOP President Donald Trump and Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden vying for the Oval Office — and so will the oil industry.
Oil Price Analysis: Brent may drop to $30 barrel as OPEC+ remains silent on further cuts and political factors, such as the implications of a likely Biden win, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a note.
On Monday, Brent crude was trading 3.29% higher to $39.27 per barrel.
US Election Impact: “Just around the corner the U.S. election is looming and Biden has odds of 65% vs. Trump at 35% of winning,” Schiedlrop said.
Biden supports the Iran nuclear deal, which he helped orchestrate as vice president under former U.S. President Barack Obama.
“A Biden win implies a revival of this deal, with return of Iranian supplies to the market likely in 2022,” the analyst said.
“Saudi Arabia, Russia and OPEC+ will, with this prospect ahead, want to return back to normal by the start of 2022 at the latest i.e. they will in no way want to dig their production-cut hole any deeper than it currently is. Stand back shale is the message to the market.”
USO Price Action: The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE: USO) was trading 4.04% higher at $26.27 at last check Monday.
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