While every other NHL playoff series has seen buckets of goals and at least one blowout, the best-of-seven between the Calgary Flames and Dallas Stars has looked a lot more like “playoff hockey.” Stingy defense, physical play, and exemplary goaltending have been the standout themes through the first four games of the Round 1 matchup.
Headed into a 2-2 series on Tuesday, Game 5 should be an exciting playoff atmosphere. These two teams will be jockeying for position throughout the night.
That said, it is fair to suggest that the Flames have started to look like they are about to put some separation between them and the Stars.
Stars vs. Flames Game 5 odds
Odds provided by BetRivers
Spread: DAL +1.5 (-111) vs. CAL -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline: DAL (+175) vs. CAL (-210)
Total: Over 5.5 (+100) | Under 5.5 (-118)
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Stars vs. Flames Game 5 prediction
In their Game 4, Calgary out-attempted Dallas, 75-38, created 13 more high-danger scoring chances, and won on expected goals, 3.9 to 1.6, at 5-on-5. If not for Jake Oettinger’s heroics in goal, the Flames could have run away with the contest a lot earlier than they actually did.
While Jacob Markstrom has been terrific in goal for Calgary, Oettinger has been the most effective goalie in the postseason so far. The 23-year-old has skated to a .960 save percentage and a +6.4 Goals Saved Above Expected. And it’s not like he’s faced an easy workload, either.
The Flames have created 44 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 in this series but have scored on just one of them. Goaltenders do get absurdly hot over small samples, so Oettinger can continue to play well, but it’s really hard to imagine he will be able to keep his level this high against a deep offense that is starting to find holes in the Dallas defense.
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And the job becomes even harder for the Stars on Wednesday night, as the Flames have home-ice advantage and will get the matchups they want.
With the Calgary offense rounding into form and a dip in form expected from Oettinger, Game 5 does set up well for an offensive outburst from the Flames, who have scored just three goals at 5-on-5 this series.
The narrative surrounding this series is that every game is going to be an under bettor’s dream, but there are plenty of signals pointing to a stronger showing from Calgary’s offense, which should open things up for both teams. With that being the case, punters can find value on correlated markets, like Flames -1.5, Over 5.5, or a team total prop.
NHL best bet for Wednesday:: Calgary Team Total Over 4.5 (+260) — BetMGM
